Could Djokovic STILL have an edge despite Nadal's stats and form @ 2019 AO final?

Yes?

Fact that he mentally owns Nadal not too dissimilarly from the way Nadal owns Federer, Djokovic may still have a realistic shot.

That nugget is potent enough to neutralize ALL other indicators currently favoring Nadal - barely.

However, Nadal is clearly hungrier and the title is FAR more consequential, meaningful and weighty to him - for obvious freaking reasons.

Djokovic appears plateauing if not declining having achieved what many may consider impossible @ age 31 thereby limiting how 'far' this AO title will go for him with respect to real needle movement considering his chances of winning another Slam may be over thereby transforming this into a not so worthwhile exercise - in the long run - unlike Nadal.

Translation: TONS of intangibles are in play that may or may not need the validation of stats and other physical reinforcement to produce the end result.

Nadal has this added motivation of defeating Djokovic @ his 'Home' thereby adding what he did to grandpa @ Wimbledon - in his prime - to further advance his GOAT (a) claim if he ever gets there.

Of course, he also has a fairly realistic carrot of getting to No. 19 before 2019 ends. 20????

And then there are the other glaring pieces like the second Career Slam, No. 18, winning AO without losing a set (???????) - something even Djokovic hasn't done AND Federer did it just once - in his prime. Nadal is not only not in his prime, this is hard court and his least favorite Slam.

Bottom line: It's not as clear cut as it may appear on paper. BOTH clowns know it and will assert their advantage early in the match to capitalize and win - psychologically.

Comments

[Gary Moser]

"Fact that he mentally owns Nadal not too dissimilarly from the way Nadal owns Federer"
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Nadal has lost 5-of-his-last-5 meetings with Federer, including the 5th set of a Slam by a score of 3-6.

Nadal has lost 3-of-his-last-5 meetings with Djokovic, including the 5th set of a Slam by a score of 8-10.

Dissimilarly enough for me.

[ Of course, I'm me. ]

[Alpha]

Not if you look at it “properly”. There was an impostor paling in Djokovic’s body between FO16 and W18. If it helps, think of him as injured. Take out that period, as the injuries are now over, and is there really much of a difference?

[O]

The improvement in his serve is a case study. Is he unbroken so far? In 2017, he was broken three times by Dimitrov is just one set. Maybe Rafa has fundamentally changed his game. I have no idea who will win now, I won't be surprised if Federer takes it.

[sperry]

I'd be very surprised if Federer takes it.

[Gary Moser]

As I stated...I'm me.

[ Which, it would appear, is a euphemism for constantly failing to look at things "properly". :-> ]

[Alpha]

That means that sometimes you have to look beyond the numbers. For example, on average, everybody on the planet has one testicle. True, but...

[Gary Moser]

Thanks for giving me a second example of one of my all-time favorite sayings:

"A man with his feet encased in ice and his head in an oven is comfortable --- on the average."

[O]

Djokovic and Federer were better players, now who knows after Rafa's performance here at AO?

[O]

At UO they couldn't celebrate Osaka, everybody was still focusing on Serena the GOAT. At that moment Osaka was greater than Serena. Today she rises once again.

[O]

Odds: bet 135 on Djokovic gets 100, bet 100 on Rafa gets 115?

[O]

Djokovic favorite going in?

[Gary Moser]

On Bovada, Djokovic is currently showing as a -130 [ risking $130 wins $100 ]
while Nadal is listed at +110 [ risking $100 wins $110 ].

As I may have mentioned to you folks before the tournament started,
I put $30 on Nadal at +700 to win the tournament...so if he beats Djokovic tonight I'll win $210.

But wait a minute!

If Nadal gets off to a hot start --- say, after winning the first set, or going up a set and a break ---
and the odds on Novak would shift from the original -130 to +200, I could put $80 on The Serb at that point
to guarantee myself a NET profit from the two wagers of $130...no matter who goes on to win the match.

Talk about being in the proverbial SWEET SPOT!

[O]

You are a visionary, Gary, good luck and have fun with the finals. I hope it's a great match worth watching over and over again like the AO17 finals. The women's finals was good? I liked Osaka since UO, and thought she was great. It's nice to see that Kvitova and Osaka played quite well. I don't even know who I like in these men's finals. Probably like the bookies, one would consider Djokovic the slightly better player. This match is probably key to one or both of them reach 20, and becomes a GOAT.

[Gary Moser]

"You are a visionary, Gary"
--------------------------
Thanks, O! In the future, please feel free to call me VG. :->

I only caught the 2nd half of the Women's Final, but it looked to be wonderful,
and all the post-match reports I read had nothing but praise for both of them.

I wanted Kvitova --- mainly because I figure her, at age 28, to have fewer opportunities going forward than Osaka ---
but had a feeling that Osaka was going to do it, so put a token $13 on her to win $14...

[sperry]

That, and Kvitová just seems to be a sweet person. Tough for me to watch a match when I like both players.

[Gary Moser]

She sure does, Sperry. Corroborated, it would seem, by her apparently being another Kim Clijsters among her peers:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WTA_Karen_Krantzcke_Sportsmanship_Award

[sperry]

thanks for sharing that, Gary.